Uncertainty about the future path of inflation affects consumption, saving and investment decisions as well as wage negotiations and price setting of firms. These decisions are based on inflation expectations which are a key determinant of inflation in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In this...

Despite similar levels of per capita income, education, and technology the development of labour shares in OECD countries has displayed different patterns since 1960. The paper examines the role of demography in this regard. Employing an overlapping generations model we first examine the...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a credit crunch occurred in Germany during the recent financial crisis and to analyze the underlying factors. In order to disentangle credit supply and demand we specify a theory-based dynamic disequilibrium model of the German credit market....

Im Juni 2008 ist die Inflationsrate im Euroraum auf 4% und damit ihren höchsten Wert seit Beginn der Währungsunion gestiegen, ausgelöst durch den kräftigen Anstieg der Preise für Rohöl und Nahrungsmittel, der von recht dauerhafter Natur sein dürfte. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat...

In der Euro-Krise gingen starke Änderungen in internationalen Kapitalflüssen mit großer makroökonomischer Unsicherheit einher. Zwar ist es offensichtlich, dass beide Faktoren ökonomische Schocks auslösen bzw. verstärken können, es ist aber derzeit unklar, inwiefern sie direkt miteinander...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

We examine the dynamics of bank lending to the private sector for countries of the Euro area by applying a Markov switching error correction model. We identify for Belgium, Germany, Ireland and Portugal stable, mean reverting regimes and unstable regimes with no tendency to return to the long...

For monetary policy guiding inflation expectations provides an instrument to achieve price stability. However, expectation uncertainty may undermine monetary policy’s ability to stabilise the economy. This study examines the effects of inflation expectation uncertainty on inflation, inflation...