Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments...

The last twenty years have brought a bulk of inconsistent results on the determinants of business cycle synchronization (BCS). Researchers have usually focused their attention on a limited set of possible determinants, not accounting for model uncertainty. For these reasons, Bayesian Model...

The first objective of this paper is to present theoretical approaches to the impact of trade growth (induced by monetary integration) on business cycle synchronization which is an important factor of a country's readiness for a currency union accession. The main conclusion from the first part...

We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the period 1995-2008. There is a broad consensus that the relationship between fiscal policy and business cycle comovements and between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are...

Like most of the global economy, Austria suffered from recession in 2008-2009. In this paper we deconstruct the pattern of recession, and the transmission of the global recession to Austria's economy. We provide a new a new breakdown of the value added in Austrian exports, tracing both upstream...