We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We...

We analyse if consumption can be internationally detached from GDP domestic shocks due to cross border risk sharing mechanisms. We update the measurement of risk sharing for industrialized OECD countries and for several subsets of European ones. We use panel VAR models to capture the dynamic...