The paper provides estimates of the euro-area output gap, based on a relatively standard medium scale DSGE model estimated recursively with Bayesian techniques over the period 1985-2016. The main findings can be summarized as follows. First, our measure of output gap identifies episodes of...

The aim of this research is to estimate a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the euro area, core and periphery. The estimation is performed with Bayesian techniques using eleven macroeconomic time series. The model implements an automatic fiscal transfer...

This special issue of Brussels Economic Review / Cahiers Économiques de Bruxelles aims at providing some theoretical and empirical perspectives on the euro crisis from a macroeconomic viewpoint. The contributions have been selected after the Macroeconomics Workshop: “The euro crisis: Where do...

This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the role of intertemporal risk sharing – or consumption smoothing – in absorbing the impact of asymmetric shocks in the euro area. We attempt to disentangle the role of international credit markets from domestic net savings and that of...

We estimate the impact of fiscal measures adopted in response to the COVID-19 crisis at the euro area level, combining standard macroeconomic data with an index on the strictness of ‘lockdown style’ policies. Given the multitude of shocks occurred simultaneously during the pandemic, the...

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic impact of a programme for public infrastructure spending in the euro area (EA) under alternative assumptions about funding sources and the monetary policy stance. The quantitative assessment is made by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model of a...

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and financial effects of the Eurosystem's Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and its interaction with a member country's macroprudential policy. We assume that some households in a euro-area (EA) country are subject to a borrowing constraint, and that their...