We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically...

Standard present-value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that current exchange rates contain predictive information about future fundamentals. We test the validity of this key empirical prediction of present-value models in a sample of 35...

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility and crash risk. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default...