We assess the properties of currency value strategies based on real exchange rates in a cross-sectional portfolio setting. We find that real exchange rates predict currency excess returns, but in a way that is inconsistent with the notion of currency value because a high valuation level...

We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically...

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility and crash risk. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default...