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literature was found to have promising forecasting abilities, it is possible to further improve the performance if the … coefficient adjustment. With this calibration of the Kalman filter model the short-term out-ofsample forecasting accuracy can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011700704
Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether such time-variation could reflect shifts in the key oil price drivers over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661547
We examine how oil prices and exchange rates co-move using two measures of dependence: correlations and copulas and document two main findings for crude oil prices and a range of currencies: oil price–exchange rate dependence is in general weak, although it rose substantially in the aftermath...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577349
This paper examines the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate using detrended cross-correlation analysis. For a wide set of currencies in the periods before and since the onset of the recent global financial crisis, we characterized the oil price–exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752926
This paper investigates the long-run relationship and asymmetric adjustment between the real oil prices and the real bilateral exchange rates of twelve major oil producers and consumers in the world. It uses threshold autoregressive, TAR, and momentum threshold autoregressive, M-TAR models. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010718958
Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether such time-variation could reflect shifts in the key oil price drivers over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214320
Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106322
This paper studies the dynamic relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and world commodity price movements. Taking into account parameter instability, we demonstrate surprisingly robust evidence that exchange rates predict world commodity price movements, both in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005787382
practical implications, our forecasting results provide perhaps the most convincing evidence to date that the exchange rate …,b) literature on forecasting exchange rates, we find that the reverse forecasting regression does not survive out-of-sample testing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549016
span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008677175