We use unique data fromfinancial advisers' professional exam scores and combine it with other variables to create an index of financial sophistication. Using this index to explain long-term stock return expectations, we find that more sophisticated financial advisers tend to have lower return...

We develop two new methods for calibrating subjective expectations regarding the return generating process (RGP) of financial assets without resorting to noisy realized returns. Using finance professionals' expectations of average and extreme returns, volatilities, and probabilities of stocks...

We use data from financial advisers' professional exam scores and other variables to build an index of financial sophistication. A one standard deviation reduction in sophistication increases long-term expected returns quoted to clients by 1.1 percentage points, and twice as much for emerging...