Multiple-equilibria macroeconomic models suggest that consumers and investors' perceptions about the state of the economy may be important independent factors for business cycles. In this paper, we examine empirically the interrelations between waves of optimism and pessimism and subsequent...

Multiple-equilibria macroeconomic models suggest that consumers and investors' perceptions about the state of the economy may be important independent factors for business cycles. In this paper, we examine empirically the interrelations between waves of optimism and pessimism and subsequent...

This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents have imperfect knowledge about the economic environment and the policy regime in place. Households and firms learn about the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty...

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with...

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...