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Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
Allais (1952) was one of the first to propose an outcome dependent probability weighting function to characterize probability distortions that explain violations of the linear probability model for expected utility theory (EUT). Quantum probability theory (QPT) extends the probability distortion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115006
control theory to the so-called multiplier and constraint preferences that have been used to express ambiguity aversion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014025622
(KMM) interpret ambiguity aversion as aversion against second-order risks associated with ambiguous acts. We design an … experiments. It appears that the ambiguity premium is partially paid to avoid the ambiguity issue per se, which is distinct from … notions of second- order risk. This finding is robust even when there is only partial ambiguity, and is applicable to all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011801484
We establish a class of fully nonlinear conditional expectations. Similarly to the usage of linear expectations when a probabilistic description of uncertainty is present, we observe analogue quantitative and qualitative properties. The type of nonlinearity captures the agents sentiments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477162
ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. These preferences are dynamically inconsistent for nontrivial versions of α. In this paper, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011892184
We provide an axiomatic approach to a belief formation process in an informational environment characterized by limited, heterogenous and differently precise information. For a list of previously observed cases an agent needs to express her belief by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356678
between the set of relevant measures, shown by KMS [21] to reflect only perceived ambiguity, and the set of measures (which we … perceived ambiguity. Regarding symmetry assumptions, we show that, under relatively mild conditions, a variety of preference … stringent. Only when it is satisfied may the Bewley set be interpreted as reflecting only perceived ambiguity and not also taste …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011694779
Decisions under ambiguity depend on the beliefs regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303335
The α-MEU model and the smooth ambiguity model are two popular models in decision making under ambiguity. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422419