We show that in the formalization of representativeness (Kahneman and Tversky (1972)) developed by Gennaioli and Shleifer (2010), overreaction and confidence are affected by uncertainty, as a news effect interacts with an uncertainty effect. In the time series domain, this interaction emerges in...

This paper uses new household survey data to study expectation formation during the recent housing boom in Germany. The cross section of forecasts depends on only two household characteristics: location and tenure. The average household in a region responds to local conditions but underpredicts...

This paper uses new household survey data to study expectation formation during the recent housing boom in Germany. The cross section of forecasts depends on only two household characteristics: location and tenure. The average household in a region responds to local conditions but underpredicts...