Beliefs should be affected more strongly by reliable information. We test this notion using beliefs inferred from the odds offered by professional bookmakers for men's tennis matches, exploiting exogenous variation in information reliability related to whether a tennis match is played in a long...

A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes Rule correctly when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of...