Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We construct a new pan-European dataset of reform...

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is a monthly panel survey among financial market experts that was launched in December 1991. The survey focuses on the experts' expectations about international financial markets and macroeconomic developments. We describe the ZEW Financial Market Survey and the...

I propose a flexible non-parametric method using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) to estimate a generalized model of expectation formation. This approach does not rely on restrictive assumptions of functional forms and parametric methods yet nests the standard approaches of empirical studies on...

Expectations about different macroeconomic aspects correlate with each other. I perform a structural test in the framework of the noisy information model and show that individual forms their expectations on multiple macroeconomic variables jointly rather than independently, thus causing these...

This project examines the role of heterogeneity in loss aversion for identifying models of expectations-based reference dependence (Kőszegi and Rabin, 2006, 2007) (KR). Different levels of loss aversion lead to different signs for comparative statics previously used to test the KR model. In an...

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

This collection of papers analyzes the versatility and predictive power of survey expectations data in asset pricing and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment...

Forecast errors for inflation decline monotonically with both verbal and quantitative IQ in a large and representative male population. Within individuals, in expectations and perceptions are autocorrelated only for men above the median by IQ (high-IQ men). High-IQ men's forecast revisions are...