This paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Since agents that plan for the future care about expected future utility flows, current felicity can be increased by believing that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, expectations that are biased towards...

Using proprietary portfolio data on millions of households, we show that (likely) Republicans increase the equity share and market beta of their portfolios following the 2016 presidential election, while (likely) Democrats rebalance into safe assets. We provide evidence that this behavior is...