A large literature is concerned with measuring economic uncertainty and quantifying its impact on real decisions, such as investment, hiring, and R&D, and ultimately economic growth. The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of timely measures of uncertainty and expected growth across...

We use data from the aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors' expectations about economic growth evolve across horizons in response to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to...

We use data from the aggregate stock market and dividend futures to quantify how investors' expectations about economic growth evolve across horizons in response to the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent policy responses until June 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the...

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...