This paper explores the robustness of laboratory expectation formation and public signal credibility to external uncertainty shocks and online experimentation. We exploit the recent pandemic as a source of exogenous background uncertainty in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE)...

We explore the effects of macroeconomic literacy training on expectation formation in an experimental economy where participants' aggregated expectations endogenously influence macroeconomic variables. We systematically vary the information participants receive about the economy's...

Our study demonstrates how agents' expectations can interact dynamically with monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound. We study expectation formation near the zero lower bound using a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment under alternative policy regimes. In our experimental...

Central banks are increasingly communicating their economic outlook in an effort to manage the public and financial market participants' expectations. We provide original causal evidence that the information communicated and the assumptions underlying a central bank's projection can matter for...

We use a new Canadian household survey to examine how inflation uncertainty influences inflation expectations and spending. Through randomized information interventions, we provide inflation statistics with or without second moments, creating variations in households' inflation uncertainty. All...