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Bayesian risk forecasting for long horizons
Borowska, Agnieszka; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2019
risk. The key insight behind our importance sampling based approach is the sequential construction of marginal and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979983
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Efficient estimation of conditional risk measures in a semiparametric GARCH model
Yan, Yang; Shang, Dajing; Linton, Oliver - 2012
when estimating error quantiles. In order to prevent this efficiency loss in quantile estimation, we propose a quantile …. At the same time, the efficiency gain in error quantile estimation hinges on the efficiency of estimators of the variance … parameters. We show that the same conclusion applies to the estimation of conditional Expected Shortfall. Our comparison also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620388
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Bayesian semi-parametric realized conditional autoregressive expectile models for tail risk forecasting
Gerlach, Richard; Wang, Chao - In: Journal of financial econometrics 20 (2022) 1, pp. 105-138
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012878188
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GARCH models for daily stock returns : impact of estimation frequency on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasts
Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart F. - In: Economics letters 123 (2014) 2, pp. 187-190
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400299
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Realizing the extremes : estimation of tail-risk measures from a high-frequency perspective
Bee, Marco; Dupuis, Debbie J.; Trapin, Luca - In: Journal of empirical finance 36 (2016), pp. 86-99
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662757
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How informative is high-frequency data for tail risk estimation and forecasting? : an intrinsic time perspectice
Dimitriadis, Timo; Halbleib, Roxana - 2019
This paper proposes a novel and simple approach to compute daily Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) directly from high-frequency data. It assumes that financial logarithm prices are subordinated unifractal processes in the intrinsic time, which stochastically transforms the clock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317619
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Observation-driven models for realized variances and overnight returns applied to value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting
Opschoor, Anne; Lucas, André - In: International journal of forecasting 37 (2021) 2, pp. 622-633
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792858
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Improving the accuracy of tail risk forecasting models by combining several realized volatility estimators
Naimoli, Antonio; Gerlach, Richard; Storti, Giuseppe - In: Economic modelling 107 (2022), pp. 1-19
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013367470
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A Dynamic AutoRegressive Expectile for Time-Invariant Portfolio Protection Strategies
Hamidi, Benjamin; Maillet, Bertrand; Prigent, Jean-Luc - Institut de Préparation à l'Administration et à la … - 2014
Among the most popular techniques for portfolio insurance strategies that are used nowadays, the so-called \Constant Proportion Portfolio In- surance" (CPPI) allocation simply consists in reallocating the risky part of a portfolio according to the market conditions. This general method crucially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161633
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Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management (continuation). Section III: Managing Operational Risk
Fantazzini, Dean - In: Applied Econometrics 11 (2008) 3, pp. 87-122
We continue publishing the four-part consultation of professor of Moscow School of Economics of Lomonosov MSU Dean Fantazzini. The first part, that appeared in 2 (10), 2008 of the journal, dealt with the introduction to the problem (section one: basic concepts and types of financial risks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009190191