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Chapter 2. Errors in probabilistic reasoning and judgment biases

Benjamin, Daniel J. - 2019

modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more … processes, biases in belief updating, the representativeness heuristic as a possible unifying theory, and interactions between …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023386

Skewness seeking : risk loving, optimism or overweighting of small probabilities?

Åstebro, Thomas; Mata, José; Santos-Pinto, Luís - In: Theory and decision : an international journal for … 78 (2015) 2, pp. 189-208

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010513859

Eliciting subjective probability distributions with binary lotteries

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, … - In: Economics letters 127 (2015), pp. 68-71

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382875

The Poisson random effect model for experience ratemaking : limitations and alternative solutions

Lee, Woojoo; Kim, Jeonghwan; Ahn, Jae Youn - In: Insurance / Mathematics & economics 91 (2020), pp. 26-36

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241976

Using point forecasts to anchor probabilistic survey scales

Becker, Christoph; Dürsch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; … - 2024

We present the results of an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two advantages over the standard scale which is centered...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014481221