Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...

This paper explores the power of news sentiment to predict financial returns, in particular the returns of a set of European stocks. Building on past decision support work going back to the Delphi method this paper describes a text analysis expert weighting algorithm that aggregates the...

The prediction market literature proposes that markets efficiently incorporate all available information. In contrast, behavioral finance assumes individual decision-making biases affect financial markets. We examine both using Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) data. We ask whether markets appear...

Design Of Experiments (DOE) is needed for experiments with real-life systems, and with either deterministic or random simulation models. This contribution discusses the different types of DOE for these three domains, but focusses on random simulation. DOE may have two goals: sensitivity analysis...