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We experimentally explore decision-making under uncertainty using a framework that decomposes uncertainty into three distinct layers: (1) physical uncertainty, entailing inherent randomness within a given probability model, (2) model uncertainty, entailing subjective uncertainty about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862952
With the rise of experimental research in the social sciences, numerous methods to elicit and classify people's risk … attitudes in the laboratory have evolved. However, evidence suggests that people's attitudes towards risk may change … considerably when measured with different methods. Based on a with-subject experimental design using four widespread risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098392
We review some of the (theoretical) economic implications of David Schmeidler's models of decision under uncertainty (Choquet expected utility and maxmin expected utility) in competitive market settings. We start with the portfolio inertia result of Dow and Werlang (1992), show how it does or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012121980
long horizons. We present an experiment comparing decision making under certainty, risk, and ambiguity, over a shorter … lifecycle. Results show that behavior in the ambiguity treatment is markedly different than in the risk condition and it is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033292
This paper studies a problem of choice under uncertainty in which a decision-maker's (DM) choices randomly map to consumption outcomes. The primitive is a binary relation on menus, where a menu is a set of possible ex post outcomes. After the DM selects a menu, nature (not the DM) makes a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014126867
utility all predict unequivocally that risk-averse decision makers (DMs) will avoid the 50 - 50 urn that exhibits the highest … risk conceivable, while risk-seeking DMs do the opposite. However, we observe a substantial number of violations in the … notions of second- order risk. This finding is robust even when there is only partial ambiguity, and is applicable to all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011801484
Parametric and non-parametric risk aversion is often elicited through binary lotteries. Basing ourselves on recent … bias the result of risk aversion elicitation in two ways. First, subjects might favor binary lotteries displaying more … the pair, it may push subjects to take on more second order risk, which we term the level bias. We analyze the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985289
choice between risky and ambiguous Ellsberg urns, we let them choose between a safe option and a risky lottery, whose risk is …, subjects can reduce or even eliminate the ambiguity and turn the decision situation into one of risk. Under the assumption that … request more information. Moreover, we investigate whether the relation between attitudes towards risk and ambiguity is linked …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010188142
specification includes two parameters: one for ambiguity attitudes and another for risk attitudes. We also estimate a three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011757224
probabilities, and (3) are ambiguity non-neutral. By decomposing ambiguity into risk and model uncertainty, and jointly eliciting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011457763