Despite the widespread use of graphs in empirical research, little is known about readers' ability to process the statistical information they are meant to convey ("visual inference"). We study visual inference within the context of regression discontinuity (RD) designs by measuring how...

How should researchers design experiments to detect treatment effects with panel data? In this paper, we derive analytical expressions for the variance of panel estimators under non-i.i.d. error structures, which inform power calculations in panel data settings. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we...

Overconfidence is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their own judgments is systematically greater than their objective accuracy. There is abundant anecdotal evidence that overconfident people increase their exposure to risk. In this paper, we test whether...