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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002098736
We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014029142
We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778858
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002469205
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003412670
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003721929
We consider a cross-calibration test of predictions by multiple potential experts in a stochastic environment. This test checks whether each expert is calibrated conditional on the predictions made by other experts. We show that this test is good in the sense that a true expert - one informed of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012730968