This paper examines the impact of protectionist policies on exports within global value chains (GVCs), using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. Leveraging UK customs data (2017–2020) and a shift-share identification strategy, we estimate an elasticity of exports with respect to...

This paper develops a methodology of evaluating trade potential under different integration scenarios using a panel of disaggregated exports. The methodology is applied to compare trade potential of Ukraine under three counterfactual scenarios: joining CU, signing FTA with EU, and joining EU....