Extreme Value Theory (EVT) methods are used to investigate the asymptotic distribution of the lower tail for daily returns in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) over the period 1986 to 2001. Overall, the Generalised Logistic (GL) distribution is found to provide adequate descriptions of the...

Extreme Value Theory methods are used to investigate the distribution of the extreme minima in the German stock market over the period 1973 to 2001. Innovative aspects of this paper include (i) a wide set of distributions considered, (ii) L-moment diagrams employed to identify the most...

Purpose This study aims to forecast daily value-at-risk (VaR) for international stock indices by using the conditional extreme value theory (EVT) with the Realized GARCH (RGARCH) model. The predictive ability of this Realized GARCH-EVT (RG-EVT) model is compared with those of the standalone...

Purpose – This study aims to examine the stock returns distributions in ten countries in the periods before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) to evaluate how well the empirical distributions conformed to the extreme value theory (EVT) which underlies a family of risk management...

Extreme asset price movements appear to be more pronounced recently and havemajor consequences for an economy’s financial stability and monetary policies.This paper investigates the extreme behaviour of equity market returns andquantifies the probabilities of these losses. Taking fourteen...

Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from 12 European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional distributions for single and multi-period settings. These measures...

In terms of risk measurement, probability and quantile risk estimation have developed enormously in the past decade, from value-at-risk measures to coherent measures such as expected shortfall. These measures allow an investor to determine their risk profile accounting for losses (quantiles) at...

Futures exchanges require a margin requirement that ensures their competitiveness and protects against default risk. This paper applies extreme value theory in computing unconditional optimal margin levels for a selection of stock index futures traded on European exchanges. The theoretical...

Thesis (PhD (Statistics and Actuarial Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011.

Large data sets in finance with millions of observations have becomewidely available. Such data sets enable the construction of reliablesemi-parametric estimates of the risk associated with extreme pricemovements. Our approach is based on semi-parametric statisticalextreme value analysis, and...