In this paper evidence on whether Hong Kong's currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected volatility of real macroeconomic variables is presented. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables pre and post 1983 is presented, before a more...

This paper argues that Blomberg and Hess's (Journal of International Economics 1997) finding that political variables can be used to predict exchange rate movements better than the random walk model must be seen in the context of the decade and half of previous research which failed to beat this...

One of the stylized facts in financial and international economics is that of increasing predictability of variables such as exchange rates and stock returns at longer horizons. This fact is based upon applications of long horizon regressions, from which the typical findings are that the point...

Theory predicts that life cycle saving mechanisms will cause real exchange rate variations as the age structure varies. We investigate the impact of demography on the Swedish real exchange rate, measured as the real TCW index, during 1960 to 2000. Time series regressions show that the Swedish...

Long-horizon regression tests are widely used in empirical finance, despite evidence of severe size distortions. I propose a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions. A Monte Carlo study shows that this bootstrap test greatly reduces the size distortions of...

This paper develops analytical methods to forecast the distribution of future returns for a new continuous-time process, the Poisson multi-fractal. The process captures the thick tails, volatility persistence and moment scaling exhibited by many financial time series. It can be interpreted as a...

A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of repetitions of past cases.