Showing 1 - 8 of 8
Recent work by Clements and Hendry have shown why forecasting systems that are in terms of differences, dVARs, can be more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from parameter non-constancies in the long run mean of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652077
In this paper evidence on whether Hong Kong's currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected volatility of real macroeconomic variables is presented. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables pre and post 1983 is presented, before a more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005587779
This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005780348
Global macroeconometric models can be a powerful tool for economic analysis and forecasting in various scenarios. This paper analyses the NIGEM model and its application to the euro area, placing particular emphasis on the study of the relative situation of the member countries' economies.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005618403
This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458107
Using density forecasts, we compare the predictive performance of dur ation models that have been developed fo modelling intra-day data on stock markets. Our model portfolio encompasses the auto regressive conditional duration (ACD) model, its logarithmic version (Log-ACD), the threshold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005669306
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005775802
In this paper we examine the forecasting performance of five nonlinear GARCH(1,1) models. Four of these have recently been proposed in literature, while the fifth model is a new one. All five models allow for switching persistence of shocks, depending on the value and/or sign of recent returns....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207500