This paper uses state panel data to investigate changes in public assistance caseloads. Compared to other research, it uses more extensive data, both across states and over time; it utilizes a particularly rich set of control variables; it investigates the different subcomponents of the AFDC...

This paper develops a theoretical model of welfare dependence, in which current participation in AFDC induces greater future use of the program. One prediction is duration dependence in welfare spells. This is tested using 6 years of monthly data on time spent in the AFDC program among female...