As part of the Fed's daily operating procedure, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Board of Governors, and the Treasury make a forecast of that day's Treasury balance at the Fed. These forecasts are an integral part of the Fed's daily operating procedure. Errors in these forecasts can...

It is commonly believed that the Fed's ability to control the federal funds rate stems from its ability to alter the supply of liquidity in the overnight market through open market operations. This paper uses daily data compiled by the author from the records of the Trading Desk of the Federal...

In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10-year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate as a “conundrum.” This paper shows that the connection between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate was...

Libor-OIS remains a barometer of fears of bank insolvency.

Chairman Bernanke seems to suggest that the purchase of a large quantity of longer-term government securities might reduce longer-term rates.

It is common practice to estimate the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks, such as the federal funds futures rate. I show that because interest rates and market-based measures of monetary policy shocks respond simultaneously...

The marked rise in longer-term rates is reflected in a rise in both real rates and expectations for inflation.