Three profound changes -- the mortality, fertility and contraception transitions -- characterized the Victorian era in England. Economists, following Becker (1960), focus on the first two and underplay the third by assuming couples can achieve their fertility target at no cost. The historical...

A cornerstone of demographic transition theory is that declines in infant and child mortality plausibly explain the onset of fertility decline in most countries. Simple versions of the Barro-Becker model of fertility choice have trouble delivering this link. We propose an extension, the...

The childhood disease burden depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases, their case fatalities, and long-term morbidity. We propose a quantity-quality model of fertility choice under uncertainty that emphasizes morbidity and mortality from infectious disease. The fer- tility response to a...