A general approach for calibrating Monte Carlo models to the market prices of benchmark securities is presented. Starting from a given model for market dynamics (price diffusion, rate diffusion, etc.), the algorithm corrects price-misspecifications and finite-sample effects in the simulation by...

Based on a rational option pricing framework that incorporates short-selling and margin-trading constraints in the stock market, we present evidence that Chinese warrant prices, which are regarded as bubbles in the previous literature, can be explained by a new option pricing model. Based on the...

In practice, traders, such as high-frequency and day traders, rely in part or primarily on moving averages to predict market directions, but their equilibrium impact is unknown. This paper presents a model to analyze how such technical traders compete trading with informed investors and how they...

What predicts returns on assets with "hard-to-value" fundamentals, such as Bitcoin and stocks in new industries? We propose an equilibrium model that shows how rational learning enables return predictability through technical analysis. We document that ratios of prices to their moving averages...

We explore the effects of fundamental extrapolation on stock returns. Empirically, we propose a novel approach to extrapolate firms' fundamental information and find that a strategy based on fundamental extrapolation earns an average return of 0.80% per month. Theoretically, we show that...