A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

The paper is concerned with the question whether the pricing of U.S. stocks has been efficient according to the present value model. We extended the MTAR-model used in the context of market efficiency using a rolling window estimation strategy. This rolling MTAR-analysis revealed that the...

The efficient market hypothesis describes an efficient market as one in which investors cannot consistently predict stock returns because prices instantly reflect all the information flowing into the market. However, return predictability has been documented in many markets. This study tests the...