We analyse UK monetary policy using monthly data for 1992–2010. We have two main findings. First, the Taylor rule breaks down after 2007 as the estimated response to inflation falls markedly and becomes insignificant. Second, policy is best described as a weighted average of a “financial...

I discuss some of the challenges and possible responses of the economics and finance profession following the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. I do this in the context of three examples. The first example draws on the Bank of England’s forward guidance on interest rates by...

We extend previous work on the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint by allowing for non-linear adjustment of the fiscal variables, conditional on the sign of budgetary disequilibria and the phase of the economic cycle. Further, our endogenously estimated threshold...

We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behavior of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets 'too high' relative to a...

We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behaviour of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets "too high" relative to a...

We extend previous work on the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint by allowing for non-linear adjustment of the fiscal variables, conditional on (i) the sign of budgetary disequilibria and (ii) the phase of the economic cycle. Further, our endogenously estimated...