This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap...

Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynsian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the...

We provide two novel dynamic double auction (DA) mechanisms for a class of economies and study their convergence property to competitive equilibrium. For DA mechanisms, we find a parameter on the two sequences of the marginal bid increments (bid step-size) and ask decrements (ask step-size) that...

This paper presents a forward-looking approach to measure systemic solvency risk using contingent claims analysis (CCA) as a theoretical foundation for determining an institution's default risk based on the uncertainty in its asset value relative to promised debt payments over time. Default risk...

In this paper, we study the rescheduling problem of a two-tier supply chain after major supply disruptions. In our model, a service provider provides maintenance job requests to its customers. The replacement parts that are used in the maintenance requests are provided by a designated...

We propose a systematic algorithmic reverse-stress testing methodology to create ``worst case" scenarios for regulatory stress tests by accounting for losses that arise from distressed portfolio liquidations. First, we derive the optimal bank response for any given shock. Then, we introduce an...

In U.S. data 1981-2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable...

The combination of rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities can create unintentional synchronization of homeowner leverage, leading to a “ratchet” effect on leverage because homes are indivisible and owner-occupants cannot raise equity to...

Being geopolitically exposed, the Russian financial sector is vulnerable to various uncertainties. The aim of the article is to examine the quantile movements and dynamic connectedness of uncertainty indices with the financial stress index of Russia employing the cross-quantilogram (CQ),...