This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....

This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....

We develop a dynamic recursive model where political and economic decisions interact, to study how excessive debt-GDP ratios affect political sustainability of prudent fiscal policies. Rent seeking groups make political decisions - to cooperate (or not) - on the allocation of fiscal budgets...

We provide a new measure of sovereign country risk exposure to global sovereign tail risk (SCRE) based on information incorporated in 5-year sovereign CDS spreads. Our panel regressions with quarterly data from 53 countries show that macro risks have strong explanatory power for SCRE. After...

Emerging market economies were major beneficiaries of the economic boom before 2007. More recently, they have become victims of the global financial crisis. Their future development depends, to a large extent, on global economic prospects. Today the global economy and the European economy are...

Emerging market economies were major beneficiaries of the economic boom before 2007. More recently, they have become victims of the lobal financial crisis. Their future development depends, to a large extent, on global economic prospects. Today the global economy and the European economy are...

We propose a novel systemic risk measurement model based on stochastic processes, correlation networks and conditional probabilities of default.For each country we consider three different economic sectors (sovereigns, corporates, banks) and we model each of them as a linear combination of two...

The Greek crisis has brought to light the strong nexus between the credit risks of European banks and their sovereign. We study this phenomenon in Germany, France, Italy and Spain by estimating the conditional correlations between sovereign and bank CDS bond spreads over the period 2006-2015. A...

This paper presents tests of uncovered interest parity in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania; all countries in Central and Eastern Europe with floating exchange rates. Data are monthly and the trading horizon is three months. The estimations show that the UIP hypothesis is...