Over the last 10 years or so a mathematical theory of bubbles has emerged, following a martingale theory based on an absence of arbitrage, as opposed to an equilibrium theory. This paper attempts to explain the major developments of the theory as it currently stands, including equities, options,...

We measure credit risk premia---prices for bearing corporate default risk in excess of expected default losses---using Markit CDS and Moody's Analytics EDF data. We find dramatic variation over time in credit risk premia, with peaks in 2002, during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and in...

For globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) with U.S. headquarters, we find large post-Lehman reductions in market-implied probabilities of government bailout, along with big increases in debt financing costs for these banks after controlling for insolvency risk. The data are consistent...

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic...

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic...

Slow-moving capital cannot fully explain the 2005 and 2008 arbitrage crashes in theconvertible bond market. Faced with depressed convertible bond prices implying negative option values, some investors continued to buy strictly dominated straight bonds from the same issuers. This finding suggests...

We provide a theory of fire sales in which potential buyers are subject to liquidity shocks and frictions that limit their ability to resell assets. The model predictions align with some stylized facts about the large sales of corporate bonds and Treasury securities during the COVID-19 economic...

The cost of systemic risk in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market is described and estimated. Modern portfolio theory (MPT), applied to OTC derivatives, predicts this cost, which has been growing since 1970. This cost grew because Congress blocked MPT's predicted market forces. Without...

Many observers have argued that credit default swaps contributed significantly to the credit crisis. Of particular concern to these observers are that credit default swaps trade in the largely unregulated over-the-counter market as bilateral contracts involving counter-party risk and that they...

In 2007 the world faced one of the biggest financial crises ever. It was the third important financial crisis in the last 12 years. Spillovers to the real economy and moral hazard behaviour of carpetbaggers resulted in enormous pressure on worldwide political institutions to approve a more...