This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

The economics profession in general, and economic forecasters in particular, have faced some understandable criticism for their failure to predict the timing and severity of the recent economic crisis. In this paper, we offer some assessment of the performance of the Economic Analysis conducted...

This European Central Bank (ECB) publication - Stress Test Analytics for Macroprudential Purposes in the euro area (STAMP€) - offers a suite of analytical tools for those interested in stress-testing frameworks and has been developed by ECB staff over the past few years.

The TITUS exercise, held on 4 November 2015, was a crisis communication exercise involving the Eurosystem's payment system oversight function, TARGET2 operators and all critical payment infrastructures processing the euro, including some of their major participants. The participants were...

I study economies where banks do not fully internalize the social costs of default, which distorts their lending decisions. In all these economies, a common general equilibrium effect leads to aggregate over-investment. As a result, under laissez-faire, crises are too frequent and too costly...

I develop a model of money market funds (MMFs) to study the ability of sponsor support to provide stability to the industry. I find that strategic complementarities in the sponsors support decisions can make MMFs vulnerable to runs different from the canonical bank-runs: it may lead to runs of...