This paper characterizes the probability of a market failure defined as the default of two or more globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in a small interval of time. The default probabilities of the G-SIBs are correlated through the possible existence of a market-wide stress event. The...

We combine both a mathematical analysis of financial bubbles and a statistical procedure for determining when a given stock is in a bubble, with an analysis of a large data set, in order to compute the empirical distribution of the lifetime of financial bubbles. We find that it follows a...

Over the last 10 years or so a mathematical theory of bubbles has emerged, following a martingale theory based on an absence of arbitrage, as opposed to an equilibrium theory. This paper attempts to explain the major developments of the theory as it currently stands, including equities, options,...