The field experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from competent investors in late 2008 where stock prices shrunk by 50%. Positions were closed after 3 months and the 4-factor model was applied to characterize strategies and derive risk-adjusted returns....

The field-based experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from more than 100 competent investors at the pick of the financial crisis. The average annual return on 117 portfolios was 5.2% with 55% profitability rate. Prior self confidence emerges as the...