Introduction -- Discovery of the bond-stock earnings yield differential model -- Prediction of the 2007-2009 stock market crashes in the US, China and Iceland -- The high price-earnings stock market danger approach of Campbell and Shiller versus the BSEYD model -- Other prediction models for the...

Acknowledgments -- Beginning -- The early days in Adams and University of 4 Massachusetts in Amherst -- Reminiscences of the early days in Berkeley -- The start of a new department in Vancouver -- What is Japan doing right to get all that -- Money? : will they lose it? -- The bond-stock earnings...

We investigate the stock market crashes in China, Iceland, and the US in the 2007-2009 period. The bond stock earnings yield difference model is used as a prediction tool. Historically, when the measure is too high, meaning that long bond interest rates are too high relative to the trailing...

What makes financial institutions, banks and hedge funds fail? The common ingredient is over betting and not being diversified in some bad scenarios that can lead to disaster. Once troubles arise, it is difficult to take the necessary actions that eliminate the problem. Moreover, many hedge fund...

Financial disasters to hedge funds, bank trading departments and individual speculative traders and investors seem to always occur because of non-diversification in all possible scenarios, being overbet and being hit by a bad scenario. Black swans are the worst type of bad scenario: unexpected...