We propose a new predictor - the innovation in the daily return minimum in the U.S. stock market () - for predicting international stock market returns. Using monthly data for a wide range of 17 MSCI international stock markets during the period spanning over half a century from January 1972 to...

Why are small and culturally homogeneous nation-states in the advanced capitalist world so prosperous? Examining how Denmark, Ireland, and Switzerland managed the 2008 financial crisis, The Paradox of Vulnerability shows that this is not an accident. John Campbell and John Hall argue that a...

Social scientists have long been interested in how political institutions affect economic performance. Nowhere are these effects more apparent today than in the current U.S. financial meltdown. This article offers an analysis of the meltdown by showing how government regulation among other...