We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...

The authors analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, they analyze the dynamics of co-movement and compare recent...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...

We propose factor-based out-of-sample forecast models for the financial stress index and its 4 sub-indices developed by the Bank of Korea. We employ the method of the principal components for 198 monthly frequency macroeconomic data to extract multiple latent factors that summarize the common...

I develop a dynamic equilibrium model that incorporates incorrect beliefs about crash risk and use it to explain the available empirical evidence on financial booms and busts. In the model, if a long period of time goes by without a crash, some investors' perceived crash risk falls below the...

This paper studies the financial sources of aggregate risks and their impact for the cross section of asset prices. We show that in a dynamic general equilibrium model with frictions in both equity and debt markets, shocks to the costs of external equity and debt issuances, affect households'...

Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie ist die vertiefte Analyse des marktphasenabhängigen Einflusses der Liquidität auf die Credit Spreads Euro denominierter Unternehmensanleihen. Dabei werden zwei Untersuchungsperioden während verschiedener Kapitalmarktphasen betrachtet. Die erste...

According to the financial press, firms with low leverage have lower distress risk due to their reduced exposure to the credit market, especially during credit crises. Compared to their conventional and socially responsible (SRI) counterparts, sharia compliant (SC) stocks are low-leverage...