The market value of government debt equals the present discounted value of primary surpluses. Applying present value decompositions from asset pricing to this valuation equation, I find that half of the variation in the market value of debt to GDP ratio corresponds to varying forecasts of future...

Preface / by John H. Cochrane and Tobias J. Moskowitz -- Introductions. My Life in Finance / Eugene F. Fama ; Things I've Learned from Gene Fama / Kenneth R. French ; Gene Fama's Impact: A Quantitative Analysis / G. William Schwert and René M. Stulz -- Efficient markets. Efficient Markets and...