Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial sy stem. This paper proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, S pillover P ersistence. I d ocument that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial c onditions; d uring b anking crises, Spillover...

How far do China’s property prices need to drop in order to send the country into a recession? What does this question tell us about the way Bubble Economies work? In this paper, we develop a theory of Bubble Economics - non-linear and often "systemic" (in the mathematical sense of the word)...