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House prices and the distribution of wealth around the great recession

Cóndor, Richard; Moguel, Rodolfo Oviedo - 2023

market using shocks to aggregate income, the distribution of income, credit conditions, and expectations of future housing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014301444

Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations

Heiss, Florian; Hurd, Michael D.; Rossmann, Tobias; … - 2019

Between 2004 and 2016, we elicited individuals' subjective expectations of stock market returns in a Dutch internet … differ in how they use past stock market returns to form current stock market expectations. The model allows for rounding in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033828

Fictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis : a topic modeling approach

Daniel, Volker; Neubert, Magnus; Orban, Agnes - 2018

actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling to a newly compiled …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159621

The Malaysian property boom and bust cycle : history repeating? : 2018, WEA On Line Conference : The 2008 Economic Crisis Ten Years On in Retrospect, Context and Prospect : Discussion Forum: from October 15th to November 30th, 2018

Ferlito, Carmelo - 2018

According to Mark Thornton, we could be very close to another major economic crisis. Ten years have passed from the so-called Great Recession and Thornton’s prediction confirms my view according to which business fluctuations are pervasive, and the crisis that emerged in the Western world in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039718

Market Dynamics Immediately Before and After Financial Shocks : Quantifying the Omori, Productivity and Bath Laws

Petersen, Alexander Michael - 2010

We study the cascading dynamics immediately before and immediately after 219 market shocks. We define the time of a market shock T_{c} to be the time for which the market volatility V(T_{c}) has a peak that exceeds a predetermined threshold. The cascade of high volatility "aftershocks" triggered...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136729

Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis

Guzman, Martin - 2016

This paper analyzes what assumptions on formation of expectations are consistent with Minsky's Financial Instability … crisis recedes into the past. We show that the hypothesis is consistent with assumptions on formation of expectations that … imply learning from realization of states and inconsistent with the assumption of full information rational expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000947

On Thin Ice : Risk, Return and Crash

Rötheli, Tobias F. - 2017

This paper describes results from a new experiment studying determinants and effects of economic risk-taking. In each session four subjects choose three slots for ice fishing on their portion of a frozen lake. The farther out on the lake the higher are the returns but also the higher is the risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968931

A Contribution to the Theory of Financial Fragility and Crisis

Bhaduri, Amit - 2010

The paper examines three aspects of a financial crisis of domestic origin. The first section studies the evolution of a debt-financed consumption boom supported by rising asset prices, leading to a credit crunch and fluctuations in the real economy, and, ultimately, to debt deflation. The next...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143561

Household debt and crises of confidence

Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 9 (2018) 3, pp. 1489-1542

This paper develops a notion of consumer confidence within a dynamic competitive equilibrium framework. In any situation where multiple equilibrium prices on next‐period spot markets are equally supported by the state of the economy, confidence is encoded in the subjective probabilities...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994753

The tail that wags the economy : beliefs and persistent stagnation

Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky - 2019

The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997953