This paper characterizes the probability of a market failure defined as the default of two or more globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in a small interval of time. The default probabilities of the G-SIBs are correlated through the possible existence of a market-wide stress event. The...

Over the last 10 years or so a mathematical theory of bubbles has emerged, following a martingale theory based on an absence of arbitrage, as opposed to an equilibrium theory. This paper attempts to explain the major developments of the theory as it currently stands, including equities, options,...

We combine both a mathematical analysis of financial bubbles and a statistical procedure for determining when a given stock is in a bubble, with an analysis of a large data set, in order to compute the empirical distribution of the lifetime of financial bubbles. We find that it follows a...

This paper derives an equilibrium asset pricing model with liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact on the price from trading, where the size of the impact depends on trade size. Under a mild set of assumptions, we prove that an equilibrium price process exists...

On September 21st, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) embarked on a new unconventional monetary policy, called yield curve control (YCC). We show that YCC creates an arbitrage opportunity in an otherwise frictionless and arbitrage-free government bond market which financial institutions can exploit....

This paper studies an equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, asset price bubbles, and trading constraints. Market liquidity is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact from trading on the price. Bubbles are larger in liquid markets and when trading constraints are more binding. Systemic...