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Adding a stage of signal acquisition to the expected utility model shows that Bayesian updating results in a well defined law of demand for financial information when asset return distributions are conjugate priors to signals such as in the gamma-Poisson case. Signals have a positive marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318614
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003866148
We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, it is possible to hold more than one (small-r) “rational” expectation. When rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919580
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013488819
rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and …‐free rate in data and measure the uncertainty each period conditional on the actual, observed history of (U.S.) macroeconomic … growth outcomes. Ambiguity aversion accentuates the effect of conditional uncertainty endogenously in a dynamic way …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994544
In real world financial markets, dividend processes as well as fundamental values are governed by imprecision; neither the objective probabilities of returns nor the actual amounts of possible returns are known for certain. With a novel experimental approach, we analyze the impact of risk,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012008802
rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and …-free rate in data and measure the uncertainty each period conditional on the actual, observed histroy of (U.S.) macroeconomic … growth outcomes. Ambiguity aversion accentuates the conditional uncertainty endogenously in a dynamic way, depending on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756113
Heterogeneous beliefs among market participants can lead to questionable speculative trading that goes beyond any risk-sharing motives. We demonstrate that such unwarranted betting behavior in market equilibrium can be mitigated by introducing nonlinear pricing for ambiguous contracts, without...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015272951
, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood … between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the Gilboa-Schmeidler (1989) maxmin with multiple priors framework to … analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122330
Adding a stage of signal acquisition to the expected utility model shows that Bayesian updating results in a well defined law of demand for financial information when asset return distributions are conjugate priors to signals such as in the gamma-Poisson case. Signals have a positive marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261163