We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. An unexpected pandemic lowers current earnings due to costly mitigation and reduces growth rates. Damage depends on the expected arrival of a vaccine that reverts earnings to normal. Using this model, we infer from analysts'...

We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. A pandemic decreases earnings due to costly mitigation and lower growth rates. The arrival of a vaccine, modeled as a Poisson process, reverts earnings to normal. We fit our model to timely measures of expected damage given by...

Increasingly adverse climatic conditions have created greater systematic risk for companies throughout the global economy. Few studies have directly examined the consequences of climate-related risk on financing choices by publicly-listed firms across the globe. We attempt to do so using the...