We explore the dynamic effects of news about a future technology improvement which turns out ex post to be overoptimistic. We find that it is difficult to generate a boom-bust cycle (a period in which stock prices, consumption, investment and employment all rise and then crash) in response to...

The present paper studies dependencies between European stock markets when returns are unusually large, using daily data on stock market indices for Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands and Italy from 1973 to 2001. Dependency is measured by the conditional probability of an...

Abstract: Viele Indizien aus der Historie der Aktienmärkte weisen auf Ineffizienz hin. Aber warum spielt die Effizienz der Aktienmärkte eine Rolle? Da sie eine zentrale Voraussetzung für hohes volkswirtschaftliches Wachstum darstellt. (Mishkin und Eakins, 2006, S. 3-4)In drei Aufsätzen...

The present paper studies dependencies between European stock markets when returns are unusually large, using daily data on stock market indices for Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands and Italy from 1973 to 2001. Dependency is measured by the conditional probability of an...