This paper studies the effects of government capital accumulation on sovereign debt default risk and debt restructuring renegotiation outcomes when government has limited ability to extract revenues from households. We develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of...

This paper finds optimal fiscal rule parameter values and measures the effects of imposing fiscal rules using a default model calibrated to an economy that in the absence of a fiscal rule pays a significant sovereign default premium. The paper also studies the case in which the government...

We use a sovereign default model to study the effects of introducing limits to the decision-making capabilities of governments-fiscal rules. We show that optimal limits to the debt level vary greatly across parameterizations of the model that deliver different levels of debt tolerance. In...

After 2008, the Southern European economies suffered a strong and persistent increase in unemployment. Rising government bond spreads necessitated the implementation of austerity policies. Austerity however, may increase unemployment. If workers lose human capital during unemployment spells, the...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

Spain´s sovereign crisis has many sides and causes. An unviable economic model and an insolvent financial sector generated a private sector crisis that rapidly spread to the Government´s balance sheet. The public sector itself had –and continues to have- its own serious dysfunctions. One of...

We present a theory of determinants of sovereign debt stability on foreign and domestic markets. Besides the two traditional factors - debt size and output contractions, we highlight the role of the third factor: distortionary tax, which hinders the government’s ability to freely raise...

Quantitative models of sovereign default predict that governments reduce borrowing during recessions to avoid debt crises. A prominent implication of this behavior is that the resulting interest rate spread volatility is counterfactually low. We propose that governments borrow into debt crises...

This paper examines the issue of the Greek public debt from different perspectives. We provide a historical discussion of the accumulation of Greece's public debt since the 1960s and the role of public debt in the recent crisis. We show that the austerity imposed since 2010 has been unsuccessful...

Sovereigns' public capital influences sovereign debt crises and resolution. We compile a dataset on public expenditure composition around restructurings with private external creditors. We show that during restructurings, public investment experiences severe decline and slow recovery, differs...