This paper provides an introduction to the practice of forecasting "exogenous" components of federal government taxes and spending-policy actions, for short--in the United States. First, we estimate simple models of defense expenditures that are useful for constructing current-quarter forecasts...

This paper summarises fiscal developments over the past 10 years in 16 industrial countries, based on OECD data and projections. Several countries that had substantial fiscal deficits early in the 1990s turned to surpluses by the year 2000, with some countries improving their fiscal balances by...